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feat(train): falsifiable occupancy benchmark with anti-overfitting gate
Makes the presence/person-count "beyond SOTA" claim falsifiable in code instead of aspirational (the unfalsifiability gap from the beyond-SOTA system review). occupancy_bench grades predictions vs ground truth and gates a SOTA claim behind one claim_allowed invariant requiring ALL of: - DataProvenance::Measured — synthetic/mock data is scorable for regression but never claimable (anti-mock-contamination; the CLAUDE.md Kconfig-bug lesson made structural). - A leak-free EvalSplit — validate() refuses any split where a subject OR environment id appears in both train and test (subject leakage / per-environment overfitting). - n_test >= min_test_samples (small-N guard). - Presence F1 whose bootstrap-CI lower bound (deterministic seeded splitmix64) clears the threshold — not the point estimate. - Count MAE within threshold. The claim string is unreadable except through the gate (NO_CLAIM otherwise), same discipline as the ruview-gamma acceptance gate. What remains is data, not method: a frozen, SHA-pinned, subject/environment-disjoint measured replay set turns the claim into a passing/failing test. Lives in wifi-densepose-train (the eval bounded context, alongside ablation/ eval/metrics). 10 tests cover each refusal path; warning-clean under the crate's missing_docs lint. Workspace gate 2,914 passed / 0 failed. Doc 03 updated. https://claude.ai/code/session_01MjBucx95K4BuUxZi8NWwRH
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@@ -344,6 +344,33 @@ Anyone outside the project must be able to re-run every claimed result:
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---
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## Update — falsifiable occupancy benchmark implemented
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`wifi-densepose-train::occupancy_bench` (added this branch) makes the
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presence/person-count claim **falsifiable in code**, directly enforcing the L3
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discipline above. It grades predictions vs ground truth and gates a SOTA claim
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behind a single `claim_allowed` invariant that requires **all** of:
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1. `DataProvenance::Measured` — synthetic/mock data is scorable for regression
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but **never claimable** (anti-mock-contamination; the CLAUDE.md Kconfig-bug
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lesson made structural).
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2. A leak-free `EvalSplit` — `validate()` refuses any split where a subject *or*
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environment id appears in both train and test (subject leakage / per-env
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overfitting).
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3. `n_test ≥ min_test_samples` (small-N guard).
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4. Presence F1 whose **bootstrap-CI lower bound** (deterministic splitmix64,
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seeded) clears the threshold — not the point estimate.
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5. Count MAE within threshold.
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The claim string is unreadable except through the gate (returns `NO_CLAIM`
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otherwise) — same discipline as the `ruview-gamma` acceptance gate. 10 tests
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cover each refusal path. What remains is *data*, not *method*: feed it a frozen,
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SHA-pinned, subject/environment-disjoint **measured** replay set (the curated
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room-A/room-B item above) and the "beyond SOTA" claim becomes a passing or
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failing test, not a slogan.
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---
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*All values cited from: `benchmark_baseline.json`, `v2/crates/*/benches/*.rs` (15
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files), `docs/adr/ADR-147-benchmark-proof.md`,
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`docs/adr/ADR-149-swarm-benchmarking-evaluation-methodology.md`,
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