chore: update vendor submodules to latest upstream

* fix(firmware): on_send ESP-NOW callback compat for IDF v6.0 (closes #944)

ESP-IDF v6.0 changed `esp_now_send_cb_t` from
  void (*)(const uint8_t *mac, esp_now_send_status_t status)
to
  void (*)(const esp_now_send_info_t *tx_info, esp_now_send_status_t status)

The C6 sync ESP-NOW path's `on_recv` was already version-guarded with
`#if ESP_IDF_VERSION >= ESP_IDF_VERSION_VAL(5, 0, 0)` (lines 102-112)
but the `on_send` sibling missed the equivalent guard. CI runs against
IDF v5.4 so the regression slipped through; the reporter on IDF v6.0.1
with xtensa-esp-elf esp-15.2.0_20251204 hit:

  c6_sync_espnow.c:182:30: error: passing argument 1 of
  'esp_now_register_send_cb' from incompatible pointer type
  [-Wincompatible-pointer-types]

Fix: mirror the recv guard with `#if ESP_IDF_VERSION_MAJOR >= 6` since
the send-callback signature change happened at IDF v6.0 (not v5.x like
the recv-callback). Both branches ignore the address-side argument
since `on_send` only inspects `status` to bump the TX-fail counter.

Adds `#include "esp_idf_version.h"` so the macro is in scope.

Closes #944

Co-Authored-By: claude-flow <ruv@ruv.net>

* fix(signal): anchor estimate_occupancy noise floor to calibration (closes #942)

`test_estimate_occupancy_noise_only` asserts that 20 noise-only frames
fed through a 50-frame calibrated `FieldModel` yield 0 occupancy.
Failure reported on the upstream Linux + BLAS build.

Root cause

Calibration and estimation each compute their own Marcenko-Pastur
threshold:

  threshold = noise_var · (1 + sqrt(p / N))²

with `noise_var` = median of the bottom half of positive eigenvalues
from their own covariance. The MP ratio differs across the two phases:

  calibration  (50 frames, p=8): ratio = 0.16, factor ≈ 1.96
  estimation   (20 frames, p=8): ratio = 0.40, factor ≈ 2.66

On a small estimation window the local `noise_var` estimate can also
be smaller than the calibration's (fewer samples → bottom-half median
hits lower-magnitude eigenvalues). The combination of a smaller
noise_var on estimation and the larger MP factor can flip eigenvalues
on/off the "significant" line in a sample-size-dependent way, so an
identical-distribution test window scores `significant >
baseline_eigenvalue_count` and reports phantom persons.

Fix

Persist the calibration `noise_var` on `FieldNormalMode` (new field
`baseline_noise_var: f64`) and use `max(local_noise_var,
baseline_noise_var)` as the noise floor inside `estimate_occupancy`.
This anchors the threshold to the calibration scale and prevents the
short-window collapse without changing behavior when the local
window's own noise dominates (the real-motion case).

`baseline_noise_var` defaults to 0.0 in the diagonal-fallback paths;
the estimation code treats 0.0 as "no anchored floor available" and
preserves the pre-#942 single-window behavior — so older `FieldNormalMode`
instances deserialised from disk continue to work unchanged.

Test results

  cargo test --workspace --no-default-features
  → 413 lib tests pass (signal crate), 0 fail, 1 ignored.

The actual `eigenvalue`-gated test still requires BLAS (not buildable
on Windows). Logic-trace via the four numerical anchors above shows
the fix flips `noise_var` from the smaller local value back up to the
calibration scale, dropping `significant` to or below
`baseline_eigenvalue_count` so the saturating subtraction returns 0.

Closes #942

Co-Authored-By: claude-flow <ruv@ruv.net>

firmware/esp32-csi-node/main/c6_sync_espnow.c

@@ -21,6 +21,7 @@
 #include "esp_wifi.h"
 #include "esp_mac.h"
 #include "esp_timer.h"
+#include "esp_idf_version.h"
 #include "freertos/FreeRTOS.h"
 #include "freertos/timers.h"
 #include <string.h>
@@ -144,11 +145,27 @@ static void on_recv(const uint8_t *src_mac, const uint8_t *data, int len)
     }
 }
 
+/* Issue #944: ESP-IDF v6.0 changed `esp_now_send_cb_t` from
+ *   void (*)(const uint8_t *mac, esp_now_send_status_t status)
+ * to
+ *   void (*)(const esp_now_send_info_t *tx_info, esp_now_send_status_t status)
+ * Both signatures ignore the address-side argument here — we only inspect
+ * `status` to bump the TX-fail counter — so the body is identical; only the
+ * function-pointer type differs. ESP_IDF_VERSION_MAJOR is the canonical guard.
+ */
+#if ESP_IDF_VERSION_MAJOR >= 6
+static void on_send(const esp_now_send_info_t *tx_info, esp_now_send_status_t status)
+{
+    (void)tx_info;
+    if (status != ESP_NOW_SEND_SUCCESS) s_tx_fail++;
+}
+#else
 static void on_send(const uint8_t *mac, esp_now_send_status_t status)
 {
     (void)mac;
     if (status != ESP_NOW_SEND_SUCCESS) s_tx_fail++;
 }
+#endif
 
 static void beacon_timer_cb(TimerHandle_t t)
 {

v2/crates/wifi-densepose-signal/src/ruvsense/field_model.rs

@@ -276,6 +276,13 @@ pub struct FieldNormalMode {
     pub geometry_hash: u64,
     /// Baseline eigenvalue count above Marcenko-Pastur threshold (empty-room).
     pub baseline_eigenvalue_count: usize,
+    /// Baseline noise variance estimate (median of bottom-half positive
+    /// eigenvalues from the calibration covariance). Persisted so that
+    /// `estimate_occupancy` can anchor its Marcenko-Pastur threshold to the
+    /// calibration noise floor instead of letting it drift with the
+    /// per-window sample size. Defaults to 0.0 in the diagonal-fallback path.
+    /// Issue #942.
+    pub baseline_noise_var: f64,
 }
 
 /// Body perturbation extracted from a CSI observation.
@@ -504,7 +511,11 @@ impl FieldModel {
         let baseline: Vec<Vec<f64>> = self.link_stats.iter().map(|ls| ls.mean_vector()).collect();
 
         // --- True eigenvalue decomposition (with diagonal fallback) ---
-        let (mode_energies, environmental_modes, baseline_eig_count) =
+        // Returns: (energies, modes, baseline_count, baseline_noise_var).
+        // The noise_var slot is 0.0 in the diagonal-fallback paths; the
+        // estimation hot path treats 0.0 as "no anchored noise floor" and
+        // falls back to per-window noise_var, preserving pre-#942 behavior.
+        let (mode_energies, environmental_modes, baseline_eig_count, baseline_noise_var) =
             if let Some(ref cov_sum) = self.covariance_sum {
                 if self.covariance_count > 1 {
                     // Compute sample covariance from raw outer products:
@@ -588,23 +599,28 @@ impl FieldModel {
                             let baseline_count =
                                 eigenvalues.iter().filter(|&&ev| ev > mp_threshold).count();
 
-                            (energies, modes, baseline_count)
+                            (energies, modes, baseline_count, noise_var)
                         }
                         Err(_) => {
                             // Fallback to diagonal approximation on SVD failure
-                            diagonal_fallback(&self.link_stats, n_sc, n_modes)
+                            let (e, m, b) =
+                                diagonal_fallback(&self.link_stats, n_sc, n_modes);
+                            (e, m, b, 0.0_f64)
                         }
                     }
                     // When eigenvalue feature is disabled, use diagonal fallback
                     #[cfg(not(feature = "eigenvalue"))]
                     {
-                        diagonal_fallback(&self.link_stats, n_sc, n_modes)
+                        let (e, m, b) = diagonal_fallback(&self.link_stats, n_sc, n_modes);
+                        (e, m, b, 0.0_f64)
                     }
                 } else {
-                    diagonal_fallback(&self.link_stats, n_sc, n_modes)
+                    let (e, m, b) = diagonal_fallback(&self.link_stats, n_sc, n_modes);
+                    (e, m, b, 0.0_f64)
                 }
             } else {
-                diagonal_fallback(&self.link_stats, n_sc, n_modes)
+                let (e, m, b) = diagonal_fallback(&self.link_stats, n_sc, n_modes);
+                (e, m, b, 0.0_f64)
             };
 
         // Compute variance explained using the same centered covariance as modes.
@@ -648,6 +664,7 @@ impl FieldModel {
             calibrated_at_us: timestamp_us,
             geometry_hash,
             baseline_eigenvalue_count: baseline_eig_count,
+            baseline_noise_var,
         };
 
         self.modes = Some(field_mode);
@@ -794,7 +811,7 @@ impl FieldModel {
         // Marcenko-Pastur noise estimate: median of POSITIVE eigenvalues
         // in the bottom half. Excludes zeros from rank-deficient matrices
         // (common when n_subcarriers > n_frames, e.g. 56 subcarriers / 50 frames).
-        let noise_var = {
+        let local_noise_var = {
             let mut positive: Vec<f64> =
                 eigenvalues.iter().copied().filter(|&e| e > 1e-10).collect();
             positive.sort_by(|a, b| a.partial_cmp(b).unwrap_or(std::cmp::Ordering::Equal));
@@ -807,6 +824,22 @@ impl FieldModel {
                 return Ok(0); // All zero eigenvalues — can't estimate
             }
         };
+
+        // Issue #942: anchor the noise floor to the calibration's noise_var
+        // when it's available. Per-window noise_var drifts with sample size —
+        // a short estimation window can produce a small local_noise_var that
+        // inflates `significant` and breaks the test_estimate_occupancy_noise_only
+        // invariant. The max of (calibration noise, local noise) keeps the
+        // threshold from collapsing on small windows while still letting the
+        // per-window noise dominate when it's the larger estimate. Falls back
+        // to local_noise_var when baseline_noise_var == 0 (diagonal-fallback
+        // calibration path, or pre-#942 stored modes).
+        let noise_var = if modes.baseline_noise_var > 0.0 {
+            local_noise_var.max(modes.baseline_noise_var)
+        } else {
+            local_noise_var
+        };
+
         let ratio = n as f64 / count as f64;
         let mp_threshold = noise_var * (1.0 + ratio.sqrt()).powi(2);