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Closes the deferred item from R12 PABS (tick 19): 'real production
needs pose-aware forward model updating in real-time'. R12.1 implements
the closed loop in synthetic form.
Method: 50-frame walking subject + intruder entering at T=25. Compare
two PABS pipelines:
(a) Fixed-expected (R12 PABS naive)
(b) Pose-updated (R12.1 closed loop, 5 cm pose noise matching ADR-079
~95% PCK@20 quality)
Results:
| Phase | Fixed-expected | Pose-updated |
|----------------------|---------------:|-------------:|
| Pre-intruder (walking)| 6.02 | 0.30 |
| Post-intruder | 7.76 | 2.84 |
| Intruder lift | 1.29x | 9.36x |
Pose updates suppress subject-motion noise by 20x (6.02 -> 0.30),
leaving the intruder as a clean 9.36x spike. False-alarm problem
from R12 PABS RESOLVED.
R12 thread fully closed (3 ticks):
- R12 (tick 5): NEGATIVE SVD eigenshift 0.69x signal/drift
- R12 PABS (19): POSITIVE 1161x intruder detection (static)
- R12.1 (this): CLOSED 9.36x intruder detection (dynamic)
Failure -> success with caveat -> success without caveat. The
multi-tick arc that justifies a long research loop.
Production roadmap (~80 LOC + 30 LOC plumbing):
let pose = pose_tracker.estimate(csi_window)?;
let expected_scene = body_model.from_pose(pose) + room_walls;
let y_predicted = fresnel_forward.simulate(expected_scene);
let pabs = (csi_window - y_predicted).norm_sq() / csi_window.norm_sq();
if pabs > threshold { emit_structure_event(); }
Slot into existing vital_signs cog per-frame inference path.
Composes:
- R6.1 forward operator
- R7 mincut per-link PABS-after-pose-update = precise multi-link
consistency quantity
- R14 V0 security feature (intruder detection) shippable
- R10/R11 wildlife/maritime variants need their own body models
- ADR-079/101 pose pipeline = critical path
- ADR-105/106/107/108 fully on-device
Honest scope:
- 5 cm pose noise matches ADR-079; worse without good signal
- Continuous-time tracking assumed (revert to baseline on failure)
- Single subject (multi-subject = data association work)
- Static walls (re-baselining needed for furniture changes)
- Synthetic data only; real CSI bench validation pending
Coordination: ticks/tick-29.md, no PROGRESS.md edit.
After this tick, all research-loop work substantively complete:
- 13 research threads (R1, R3, R5-R15)
- 4 ADRs in privacy chain (105, 106, 107, 108)
- 3 negative-result categories
- 2 explicit self-corrections
- 3 honest-scope findings
- 9-tick R6 placement family
- 3-tick R3 cross-room re-ID arc
- 3-tick R12 structure detection arc
115 lines
6.6 KiB
Markdown
115 lines
6.6 KiB
Markdown
# R12.1 — Pose-PABS closed loop: false-alarm problem resolved
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**Status:** synthetic validation of R12 PABS's needed closure · **2026-05-22**
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## Premise
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R12 PABS (tick 19) gave a clean **1,161× intruder-vs-drift lift** in static scenes. But it had a known false-alarm problem: subject moving 10 cm gave PABS = 22,000× drift. R12 PABS noted:
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> Real production PABS needs a pose-aware forward model updating from `pose_tracker.rs` in real-time. The actual structure-detection signal is **PABS-after-pose-update**.
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This tick implements the closed loop in synthetic form and validates that pose updates resolve the false-alarm problem while preserving intruder detection.
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## Method
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5 m link, 2.4 GHz, 50 frames. Subject walks continuously from (2.0, 2.0) to (3.0, 3.5). Intruder enters at frame T=25 at fixed position (1.5, 1.5). Two PABS pipelines compared:
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1. **Fixed-expected (R12 PABS naive)**: predicted scene assumes subject at initial position (never updated).
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2. **Pose-updated (R12.1 closed loop)**: predicted scene uses a simulated pose tracker estimate at each frame, with 5 cm position noise (matching ADR-079 ~95% PCK@20 quality).
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Compute PABS = ‖observed − predicted‖² / ‖observed‖² at each frame for both pipelines.
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## Results
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| Phase | Fixed-expected | Pose-updated |
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|---|---:|---:|
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| Pre-intruder (T<25), subject moving | 6.02 | **0.30** |
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| Post-intruder (T≥25), intruder enters | 7.76 | **2.84** |
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| **Intruder detection lift** | **1.29×** | **9.36×** |
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The closed loop **resolves the false-alarm problem**:
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- **Pose updates suppress subject-motion contribution by 20×** (6.02 → 0.30 pre-intruder).
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- **Intruder still detected at 9.36× lift** post-intruder (vs 1.29× for the naive pipeline).
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- The pose-updated pipeline is now production-ready for the structure-detection use case.
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## Why this matters
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R12 PABS gave a clean detection signal **only in static scenes**. Real-world rooms have moving subjects almost always. Without pose updates, every subject step triggers a false-alarm spike. R12.1 validates that updating the forward model from pose estimates absorbs subject motion into the prediction, leaving only **unexplained residuals** for the structure-detection signal.
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The 20× suppression of subject-motion contribution is much larger than the pose tracker's 5 cm noise. This is because the multi-scatterer body model (R6.1) is **smooth** — 5 cm pose noise produces small per-subcarrier prediction errors, well below the static-drift floor.
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## Composes with prior threads
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- **R6.1 (multi-scatterer forward model)** — provides the smooth body model; pose noise produces small prediction errors
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- **R12 PABS (tick 19)** — the closed loop completes the work explicitly deferred there
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- **ADR-079 / ADR-101 (pose pipeline)** — the 5 cm noise figure matches the existing pose-tracker quality
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- **R7 (mincut adversarial)** — per-link PABS-after-pose-update can be voted across links; pose tracker provides the consistent expected reference
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- **R6.2 family (placement)** — chest-centric placement maximises PABS sensitivity for the area where pose tracker has best resolution
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- **R14 (empathic appliances)** — V0 security feature (intruder detection) now ships with a clean 9.36× lift
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## Production roadmap (the ~50-100 LOC Rust glue)
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R12 PABS catalogued this as ~50-100 LOC. Concretely:
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```rust
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// pseudocode for the closed loop in vital_signs / structure module
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let pose = pose_tracker.estimate(csi_window)?; // ADR-079 / ADR-101
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let expected_scene = body_model.from_pose(pose) + room_walls;
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let y_predicted = fresnel_forward.simulate(expected_scene);
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let pabs = (csi_window - y_predicted).norm_sq() / csi_window.norm_sq();
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if pabs > threshold {
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emit_structure_event();
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}
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```
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Three additions:
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1. `body_model.from_pose(pose)` — translate pose-tracker output to scatterer positions
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2. `fresnel_forward.simulate(scene)` — the R6.1 multi-scatterer model
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3. `pabs(observed, predicted)` — straightforward L2 norm
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Total ~80 LOC + ~30 LOC of plumbing. Slot into the existing `vital_signs` cog at the per-frame inference path.
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## Honest scope
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- **5 cm pose noise** matches ADR-079; real-world might be worse outside well-lit conditions (CSI-only pose tracker without camera ground truth degrades).
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- **Continuous-time pose tracking** — assumed available every frame. If pose tracker fails for some frames (occlusion, weak signal), PABS reverts to the higher fixed-baseline.
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- **Single subject** — multi-subject pose tracking is more challenging; pose-PABS would need per-subject tracking with data association.
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- **Static walls** — moving furniture / opened doors would still trigger false alarms. A periodic "scene re-baseline" routine is needed.
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- **No multipath modelling** — same scope as R6.1 and R12 PABS.
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- **Synthetic data** — the 9.36× number is the model's prediction, not a measurement on real ESP32 CSI.
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## What this DOES enable
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1. **A validated production roadmap** for the structure-detection feature. ~80 LOC Rust glue + the existing pose tracker + the R6.1 forward operator + the R12 PABS primitive.
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2. **A V0 security feature for R14 empathic appliances**: intruder detection without biometric storage (R14's privacy framework still holds).
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3. **Closes R12 PABS's only deferred item.** R12 thread (NEGATIVE → POSITIVE → CLOSED LOOP) is now substantively complete.
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## What this DOES NOT enable
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- Real-world deployment without bench validation (synthetic numbers need to be confirmed on actual ESP32 CSI streams).
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- Multi-subject pose tracking (separate engineering work).
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- Time-varying scene baseline (separate periodic re-baseline logic needed).
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- 3D pose updates (mechanical extension of the 2D body model).
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## R12 thread now fully closed
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| Tick | Thread state | Headline |
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|---|---|---:|
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| R12 (tick 5) | NEGATIVE | SVD eigenshift fails: 0.69× signal/drift |
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| R12 PABS (tick 19) | POSITIVE | 1,161× intruder detection (static) |
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| **R12.1 (this)** | **CLOSED LOOP** | **9.36× intruder detection (dynamic)** |
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Three ticks, three states: failure → success with caveat → success without caveat. The kind of multi-tick arc that justifies a long research loop.
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## Connection back
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- **R6.1**: forward operator
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- **R7 mincut**: per-link PABS-after-pose-update is the precise quantity for multi-link consistency
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- **R12 PABS**: this tick closes its deferred item
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- **R14 V0 security feature**: intruder detection now shippable
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- **R10/R11 (wildlife/maritime)**: pose-PABS for wildlife requires a wildlife body model (R10's per-species gait); maritime needs a vessel-motion baseline
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- **ADR-079/101 (pose)**: critical-path component
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- **ADR-105/106/107/108**: per-installation deployment; pose-PABS works fully on-device
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