Terminal output of the SOTA research loop. Maps every research finding
to owner, LOC estimate, dependency, and priority across 6 tiers.
Total engineering budget across the loop's output:
- Tier 1 (Q3 2026): ~490 LOC, 3-4 person-weeks
- Tier 2 (Q3-Q4 2026): ~1180 LOC, 6-8 person-weeks
- Tier 3 (2027): ~1140 LOC, 8-10 person-weeks
- Tier 4-5 (long horizon): ~700+ LOC, 6-8 person-weeks
- TOTAL: ~3,500 LOC, ~25 person-weeks
Tier 1 (next quarter) ships:
- 1.1 wifi-densepose plan-antennas CLI tool (360 LOC) -- 93x placement lift
- 1.2 R12.1 pose-PABS in vital_signs cog (80 LOC) -- 9.36x intruder lift
- 1.3 cog-person-count v0.0.3 chest-centric (50 LOC)
- 1.4 ADR-029 amendment w/ ADR-113 matrix (0 LOC)
Critical-path graph:
1.1 + 1.2 -> 1.3 -> 2.1 ruview-fed -> 2.2 DP-vital-signs -> 3.1 cross-install -> 3.2 PQC
+-> 3.3 real-AETHER -> 3.4 fall-detect
+-> 4.x verticals
Why this matters: after 35 ticks of research output, this is the
document that lets a team pick up and ship without re-reading the 34
research notes. Priority alignment, estimate-anchoring, critical-path
visibility — all in one place.
R-thread mapping:
- R5/R6/R6.2 family/R6.1 -> Tier 1
- R12/R12.1 PABS -> Tier 1.2
- R3/R3.1/R3.2/R14/R15 -> Tier 2-3
- R7 mincut -> Tier 2 (in ruview-fed)
- R13 NEGATIVE -> rules out BP, no Tier line
- R10/R11/R16/R17/R18 verticals -> Tier 4-5
Composes with every loop output. Every thread, ADR, vertical sketch
has a line in some Tier. The TERMINAL output that needs the synthesis
power of a research loop to produce.
Honest scope:
- Estimates synthetic-data-based; may shift after bench validation
- Critical-path may have hidden dependencies (e.g. AgentDB schema)
- 25 person-weeks assumes full-time engineers
- Doesn't include integration testing, documentation, deployment ops
- Tiers based on architectural dependency, not business priority
Loop status after 35 ticks:
- 16 research threads
- 6 exotic verticals
- 6 new ADRs (105/106/107/108/109/113)
- 3 negative result categories
- 2 self-corrections
- 3 honest-scope findings
- 9-tick R6 family (complete)
- 3-tick R3 arc (complete)
- 3-tick R12 arc (complete)
- This production roadmap
00-summary.md will follow at 12:00 UTC / 08:00 ET cron stop.
Coordination: ticks/tick-35.md, no PROGRESS.md edit.
3.9 KiB
Tick 35 — 2026-05-22 10:55 UTC
Thread: Production roadmap synthesis Verdict: Terminal output of the loop. Maps every research finding to owner / LOC / dependency / priority. Total budget: ~3,500 LOC, ~25 person-weeks.
What shipped
docs/research/sota-2026-05-22/PRODUCTION-ROADMAP.md— 6-tier roadmap from loop output to shipped product.
Headline budget breakdown
| Tier | Timeline | LOC | Person-weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | Q3 2026 (next quarter) | ~490 | 3-4 |
| Tier 2 | Q3-Q4 2026 | ~1180 | 6-8 |
| Tier 3 | 2027 | ~1140 | 8-10 |
| Tier 4-5 | long horizon | ~700+ | 6-8 |
| Total | ~3,500 | ~25 weeks |
Tier 1 (Q3 2026) — 4 items
| # | Item | LOC | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1 | wifi-densepose plan-antennas CLI tool |
360 | HIGH |
| 1.2 | R12.1 pose-PABS in vital_signs cog | 80 | HIGH |
| 1.3 | cog-person-count v0.0.3 chest-centric | 50 | HIGH |
| 1.4 | ADR-029 amendment w/ ADR-113 matrix | 0 | HIGH |
Tier 1 alone delivers: 93× placement-coverage lift, 9.36× intruder-detection lift, ADR-029 closed.
Tier 2 (Q3-Q4 2026) — 4 items
ruview-fed crate (800 LOC), cog-vital-signs DP (120), bench validation (200), MCP placement tool (60).
Tier 3 (2027) — 4 items
Cross-install fed (530), PQC Phase 1 (490), real-AETHER + R3.2 (200), cog-fall-detection (200).
Tier 4-5 — long horizon
- 4.x: PQC Phase 2, R10 wildlife cog, R11 maritime cog, R6.1 production
- 5.x: Real RCS measurements, weather-affected propagation, fatigue cog, disaster-fed ethics
Critical-path graph
1.1 CLI ──┬──> 1.3 person-count v0.0.3 ──┬──> 2.1 ruview-fed ──> 2.2 DP-VS ──> 3.1 X-install ──> 3.2 PQC
1.2 R12.1─┘ │ │
└──> 3.3 real-AETHER ──> 3.4 fall │
4.x verticals
Why this document matters
After 35 ticks of research output, this is the document that lets a team pick up and ship without re-reading the 34 research notes. Priority alignment, estimate-anchoring, critical-path visibility — all in one place.
What R-numbered threads ship in what tier
| Threads | Tier |
|---|---|
| R5 / R6 / R6.2 family / R6.1 | Tier 1 (placement + PABS) |
| R12 / R12.1 PABS | Tier 1.2 |
| R3 / R3.1 / R3.2 / R14 / R15 | Tier 2-3 (privacy + federation) |
| R7 mincut | Tier 2 (in ruview-fed) |
| R13 NEGATIVE | rules out BP cog, no Tier line |
| R10 wildlife | Tier 4.2 |
| R11 maritime | Tier 4.3 |
| R16/R17/R18 verticals | Tier 4-5 |
Composes with every loop output
Every loop thread, ADR, vertical sketch has a line in some Tier above. This is the terminal output of the loop — the last document that needs the synthesis power of a research loop to produce.
Honest scope of the roadmap itself
- Estimates are synthetic-data-based; may shift after bench validation
- Critical-path may have hidden dependencies (e.g. AgentDB schema changes)
- 25 person-weeks assumes full-time engineers, not split focus
- Doesn't include integration testing, documentation, deployment ops time
- Tiers are based on architectural dependency, not business priority
Coordination
ticks/tick-35.md. No PROGRESS.md edit. Branch research/sota-production-roadmap.
Loop status approaching completion
~1.1h to cron stop. After 35 ticks the loop has produced:
- 16 research threads (R1, R3, R5-R15, R16, R17, R18)
- 6 exotic verticals (wildlife, maritime, empathic, healthcare, industrial, disaster)
- 6 new ADRs (105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 113)
- 3 negative result categories
- 2 self-corrections
- 3 honest-scope findings
- 9-tick R6 placement family (complete)
- 3-tick R3 cross-room re-ID arc (complete)
- 3-tick R12 structure detection arc (complete)
- This production roadmap synthesis
The 00-summary.md (final tick) will follow after the 12:00 UTC / 08:00 ET cron stop.